Revisited: Pimco’s New Normal Portfolio

The monster theme coming out of 2008-2009 was the New Normal — so much so, that it’s actually become part of our vernacular to this day.

It’s a brilliant catchphrase. So, I decided to backtest it against reality & now revisit it once a quarter, until I get bored…

Disclaimer stuff: First. This is not investment advice. This was for fun. I’m not telling you to invest in any of the securities or allocations in any of these reports. If you share this, make sure you say the same thing to the person with whom you are sharing. Ok? We cool? Scouts Honor? Ok. Here goes…

Assumptions: Purchases made 5/1/09 (roughly when the New Normal report was released to the public). Rebalanced Quarterly. Assumed $150k joint income, 28% tax rate, and 15% cap gains rate.

Benchmark: S&P 500 total return

The New Normal Allocation: I recreated the mix from an interview Mohamed El-Erian gave to Bottom Line Secrets in November 2010 {seemingly scooping absolutely every major business news network in the process}. (HT:nalledge)

Below is the initial mix & securities I used:

  • 15% US Large EQ (Vanguard Total Stock Index)
  • 15% Developed Non-US EQ (Vanguard FTSE All World)
  • 18% Emerging Market EQ (Vanguard MSCI Emerging Market)
  • 03% US Investment Grade Corporates (iShares iBoxx $ Invest Grade Corp Bond) –
  • 03% US Hi-Yield (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate)
  • 09% Non US Bonds (SPDR Barclays Capital Intl Treasuries)
  • 05% US TIPS (iShares Barclays TIPS Bond)
  • 06% US Real Estate (Vanguard REIT Index)
  • 11% Commodities (PowerShares DB Commodity Index)
  • 05% Infrastructure (iShares S&P Global Infrastructure)
  • 10% Cash (1% yield assumption)
The results? If you ask me —The New Normal STILL looks about the same as the Old Normal. Actually kind of worse. (through 9/30/2011)

 

(CLICK PIC TO VIEW COMPLETE REPORT, including Performance Attribution)
Full Disclosure: Nothing on this site should ever be considered to be advice, research or an invitation to buy or sell any securities, please see my Terms & Conditions page for a full disclaimer.

iheartWallStreet.com is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.

One thought on “Revisited: Pimco’s New Normal Portfolio

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.